Renewed Interest Rate Cut Expectations Drive Silver to a Four-Day Winning Streak, Spot Cargo Continues Destocking with Firm Premiums [SMM Weekly Review]

This week, US Fed Governor Waller released dovish signals, ending the macro bearish atmosphere from last week when expectations for interest rate cuts significantly cooled. According to CME's "FedWatch Tool," strong economic data barely changed market expectations for a US Fed rate cut at the December meeting, which remain near 85%, far higher than less than 30% a week ago. Additionally, mid-week declines in US Treasury yields and a weaker US dollar boosted precious metal prices. There are still significant differences in the "peace plan" for the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Although expectations for the conflict's end put pressure on safe-haven demand for precious metals, they did not form a bearish impact in the short term.

[Economic Data]

Bullish: US September retail sales month-on-month 0.2%, previous 0.60%, expected: 0.4%
Bearish: US November University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value 51, previous 50.3, expected 50.5
US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 216,000, previous 22.2, expected 22.5
US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending November 21 2.774 million barrels, previous -342.6, expected 5.5"

[Spot Market] In the domestic silver spot market, silver prices stopped falling and rebounded, rising for four consecutive trading days this week, but spot premiums remained high, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm significantly declined. This week, mainstream quotations for national standard silver ingots in the Shanghai market against TD increased to premiums of 35-40 yuan/kg or against the SHFE silver 2502 contract at premiums of 20 yuan/kg. Some smelters' plant-delivered national standard silver ingots against TD also increased to premiums of 30-35 yuan/kg. Domestic silver ingot spot maintained a destocking trend, spot circulating supply remained insufficient, premiums stabilized at highs for multiple consecutive trading days, downstream only made just-in-time procurement in small quantities to maintain order production, and some silver nitrate enterprises passed silver ingot premiums downstream to silver powder manufacturers to share the burden.

PV silver paste: This week, the reference average price for solar cell rear-side silver paste was 7,557-7,913 yuan/kg; the reference average price for solar cell front-side finger was 11,370-11,904 yuan/kg; the reference average price for solar cell front-side busbar was 11,320-11,854 yuan/kg.